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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.