From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Amid the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.
The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.
He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.
It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.
