Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
