Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
