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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.